Monday, 9 March 2026 at 16:00 – 17:00
Presented by:
Prof Pedro Monteiro (SU School for Climate Studies) and Prof Martin de Wit (SU School for Public Leadership)
Abstract
Over the past decade, South Africa has built strong capabilities in atmospheric, ocean and land system sciences. However, these efforts remain fragmented across domains and institutions, limiting progress in understanding coupled carbon–climate–human feedbacks that shape 21st-century risks. At the same time, the global community is advancing toward high-resolution Earth System Models (ESMs), generating unprecedented data volumes and requiring new analytical, engineering and AI-enabled modelling skills— areas where local capacity remains vulnerable. In South Africa, geophysical constraints such as water scarcity, climate variability and land degradation are not external pressures but active determinants of development pathways. Addressing this reality demands a shift from one-way impact assessments and least-cost optimisation models toward fully coupled Earth System and regional Integrated Assessment Models (rIAMs) that represent bidirectional feedbacks between climate and socio-economic systems. In this talk, we will discuss our proposal for a coordinated South African ESM-rIAM platform to strengthen national capability, support Carbon Dioxide Removal research, and build African partnerships for globally relevant, policy-responsive science.