New book highlights climate crisis facing Southern Africa

As world leaders and negotiators gather in Azerbaijan for COP29, the urgency of addressing the global climate crisis has never been clearer.

Southern Africa is already experiencing the escalating impacts of climate change, with increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves, droughts, floods and extreme weather. These events, driven by long-term shifts in temperature and weather patterns due to the burning of fossil fuels, pose a significant threat to the region’s unique ecosystems and the livelihoods they support.

Early discussions at COP29 (the 29th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, 11-22 November 2024) have focused on evaluating global progress towards the 2015 Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This is crucial to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.

Critical insights available to all

In light of these challenges, a new book offers critical insights into the climate change challenges facing Southern Africa and the science-based interventions needed to safeguard its unique ecosystems.

Sustainability of Southern African Ecosystems under Global Change: Science for management and policy interventions, published by Springer, provides a comprehensive analysis of the region’s vulnerability to climate change and outlines potential solutions.

The book is nearly 1,000 pages long, with 32 chapters organised into five thematic sections but, because it is open access, anyone can download a complete electronic copy free of charge.

Born out of two programmes funded by Germany’s Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), the book tackles a wide range of environmental issues, from the impacts of ocean currents on climate systems to how small-scale farmers can adapt to climate change.

This collaborative effort, spanning a decade and involving hundreds of researchers from Africa and Europe, represents a significant contribution from the scientific community to understanding and addressing the complex environmental challenges facing Southern Africa.

Stellenbosch University’s Professor Guy Midgley, acting director of the School for Climate Studies and one of the book’s editors, on 11 November illuminated the book’s key findings at a colloquium hosted by South Africa’s National Institute for Theoretical and Computational Sciences (NITheCS).

He emphasised the urgency of the situation, stating that, “we can see the whites of the eyes of climate change now”.

Midgley praised the significant investment made by the BMBF, which spent some €60 million (about US$63.6 million) on Science Partnerships for the Adaptation to Complex Earth System Processes (SPACES and SPACES II) over a decade.

This funding, he explained, enabled the researchers to tackle critical questions previously unexplored in Southern Africa, generating “an enormous amount of new information”.

He described the research as “cutting-edge science, much of it developed here in Africa,” underscoring the importance of local expertise in tackling the continent’s unique challenges.

A region on the climate change frontline

Southern Africa, a globally important biodiversity hotspot, faces a multitude of threats from global change, with climate change posing a particularly significant challenge. The book underscores the region’s unique vulnerabilities, including:

• Rapid warming: Southern Africa is warming at twice the global average, with potentially devastating consequences. Midgley warned that a global temperature increase of 4°C, a plausible scenario under current trends, could translate to a 5°C-6°C increase in Southern Africa. This would have dire implications for biodiversity, water resources and agriculture.
• Increased extreme events: The region faces a dramatic surge in heat waves, droughts and floods. Research presented in the book predicts a potential increase of 40 heatwave days per year in parts of Botswana, Southern Angola and Namibia under a 3°C global warming scenario. Extreme heat as recently as earlier this year led to mass mortality events in bird populations in the region.
• Soil erosion and land degradation: The book paints a grim picture of soil erosion, exacerbated by changing land-use patterns. The rate of soil formation is far outpaced by the rate of erosion, threatening agricultural productivity and ecosystem health.
• Drier future: The book predicts a significantly drier future for Southern Africa, with the most arid areas facing the most dramatic rainfall decreases. This reduced precipitation, coupled with rising temperatures, will exacerbate drought conditions and have devastating impacts on ecosystems, agriculture and water resources, particularly in the already water-stressed winter rainfall region.
• Greening trend paradox: Rising atmospheric CO₂ is driving a greening trend across the subcontinent, which has negative consequences for biodiversity. Grasslands are being choked by encroaching shrubs, impacting livelihoods and water resources.

“This is not a standard northern hemisphere challenge. It is our challenge, and we need to do our science to address it and develop our own models,” Midgley said.

Science for solutions

Despite these challenges, the book offers a message of hope, accentuating the power of science to inform effective management and policy interventions. Key areas highlighted include:

• Advanced earth observation: The book showcases cutting-edge earth observation technologies that enable detailed monitoring of land degradation, vegetation changes and carbon fluxes. This data provides valuable insights for land management and conservation efforts.
• Ecosystem modelling: Sophisticated models are being used to project future climate impacts, assess the vulnerability of different ecosystems, and evaluate the effectiveness of potential interventions. This includes modelling the complex interactions between land and ocean, crucial for understanding the potential impacts of emerging industries like green hydrogen production.
• Sustainable land management: The book explores sustainable land management practices, including improved grazing management, integrated agroforestry systems, and innovative technologies for small-scale farmers. These practices can enhance resilience to climate change and promote carbon sequestration.
• Capacity-building and collaboration: The SPACES programme has fostered strong North-South scientific partnerships, building capacity and retaining skilled scientists in Southern Africa. This collaborative approach is crucial for addressing the complex challenges of climate change.

Bridging science and policy

One of the book’s strengths lies in its commitment to bridging the gap between scientific research and policy action. Each chapter identifies clear policy implications, presenting complex scientific findings in an accessible manner. This is achieved through concise summaries of existing knowledge and the integration of the latest research from SPACES.

A call to action

Midgley insisted that scientific findings should be translated into policy action. He called for increased investment in African-led climate change research, noting that the continent currently receives less than 3% of global funding in this area, with only half of that going to African researchers.

“This book is a valuable resource for our negotiators in the climate change halls of battle,” he stated. It provides compelling evidence for the urgent need to limit global warming and invest in adaptation measures to protect Southern Africa’s unique ecosystems and the livelihoods they support.”

Who should read this book?

While directly aimed at policymakers, the book is a valuable resource for a wider audience. Midgley focused on its importance for lecturers and students seeking to understand the complexities of climate change in Southern Africa and contribute to future research. The book’s interdisciplinary approach and clear language make it relevant to anyone interested in the environmental challenges facing the region, including researchers, conservationists and concerned citizens.

The need for integrated research

The book draws attention to the need for ongoing, interdisciplinary research to provide a deeper understanding of the linkages between ocean-climate-land interactions, biogeochemical processes and the thresholds of change. By addressing these complex interactions, researchers can provide more comprehensive and robust policy recommendations for sustainable ecosystem management in the face of global change. This research should also consider the social and economic dimensions of environmental change, recognising the complex interplay between human activities and ecosystem health.

‘Overshoot’ likely

Midgley cautioned against the dangers of an “overshoot” scenario, where global temperatures rise significantly above the 1.5°C target before eventually being brought back down. He pointed out that, while previous hopes rested on avoiding a significant overshoot by 2050, current trends suggest a more pessimistic outlook.

A graph shown by Midgley during his presentation shows projections for global temperature rises under different change scenarios.

“Such an overshoot, he warned, would have devastating consequences for Southern Africa and the rest of the world, leading to the loss of invaluable species and irreversible damage to ecosystems.”

Midgley stressed the urgent need to fight for ambitious climate action to avoid such a scenario and protect the region’s unique biodiversity.

COP by the book?

As COP29 unfolds, the insights presented in this book offer a timely reminder of the stakes involved and the crucial role of science in forging a sustainable path forward.

Since the book is freely available online, it provides a valuable resource for policymakers, researchers, and anyone concerned about the future of Southern Africa in a changing climate.

The book can be download at: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-10948-5